This preseason expectations have tempered considerably on Crawford. The questions and concerns have risen and we are left wondering two things. 1)What the heck happened last year? 2)Can we realistically expect him to have a bounce back year and prove he is worth the $20 million per year we are paying him?
By answering the first question, I believe we find the answer to the second question. Do I think last year was a fluke or an outlier of sorts? NO. I do, however see two very clear reasons for last years downward trends and one extra area of concern that helped make things worse for him, which if changed will help him this season.
First let's look at the last 4 seasons of Crawford's numbers:
| Season | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 482 | 8 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 6.2% | 12.4% | .273 | .297 | 2.8 |
| 2009 | 672 | 15 | 96 | 68 | 60 | 7.6% | 14.7% | .305 | .342 | 5.9 |
| 2010 | 663 | 19 | 110 | 90 | 47 | 6.9% | 15.7% | .307 | .342 | 7.6 |
| 2011 | 539 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 18 | 4.3% | 19.3% | .255 | .299 | 0.2 |
First of all the left leg is Crawford's back leg as a left-handed hitter and thus it is the leg that begins and ends the transference of energy during his swing and greatly affects swing mechanics and balance at the plate, not to mention saps his swing of power. If you would like to be a bit interactive here feel free. Try going through a swinging motion from either side, or if you are a boxer you can do this by punching a heavy bag as if you were hitting someone in the body. The back leg holds the balance at the beginning of the swing and then on the follow through during the pivot or as we, baseball people like to call the "squishing the grape" pivot when your bat is making it's way through the zone. When you get to the finish of your swing and your back leg is at full extension reach back and feel your hamstring. You may notice the fast-twitching muscles fully flexed. Now imagine attempting to do this 100 times per day over the course of say 5 months or so with a Grade 1 strain. Not good to say the least and as a result of the discomfort you may have noticed Crawford off-balance on his front foot and lunging out at balls. You lose plate-coverage, the ability to hit through the ball and the ability to keep your weight back so that you can adjust to off-speed pitches.
In addition to changing the mechanics of his swing, the left hamstring injury obviously lowered his Stolen Base numbers. In fact the only two seasons Crawford has failed to steal at least 40 bags were 2008 and 2011. Last year he also attempted to steal on only 15% of the occasions he was on 1st or 2nd with no base-runners in front of him. So, to say his hamstring injury had little to do with the decline in the numbers of a player whose greatest physical asset are his legs would be greatly underestimating the impact of that injury.
Another area you may notice a change in the statistical layout above is his rise in K% and drop in BB%. Last year he was at an all-time low walking in only 4.3% of his Plate Appearances while striking out at an all-time high of 19.3%. Hey it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that when you are a speed guy you need to put the ball in play and get on base by any means possible. This of course caused Crawford's OBP (On-Base Percentage) to dip below .300 for the first time in his career. I will not however give the hamstring the sole blame for these numbers. There seems to be an alarming trend in Crawford's approach over the last few years. Since he has tried to incorporate more power in his game his K% has gone up every year since 2008, but it isn't due to a lack of seeing pitches. In fact last year he saw 3.89 pitches per plate appearance which ranked 4th on the Red Sox behind Pedroia, Youkilis and Ortiz and one spot ahead of Ellsbury. The prior two seasons which were the two best in Crawford's career he saw 3.74 and 3.75 respectfully. The problem with Crawford and his rise in K% is due to his issues swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Over the last two years his O-Swing% has gone from a career average of swinging at 31% of the pitches he sees outside the zone to 35.6% in 2010 and a career worst 37.9% last year. So if you couple his plate discipline with the lack of plate coverage hampered by his hamstring injury you can start to see why his K% have risen and his production last year dipped so much.
To make matters worse in regards to CC chasing more pitches outside the zone are that he has very weak numbers during his career when facing 2 strikes in counts of 0-2, 1-2 or even at 2-2. In 2103 plate appearances with those counts he has amassed just 428 hits for a paltry .206 AVG.
Another stat on the above table is BABIP or batting average on balls in play. This stat is calculated similarly to batting average but takes HR's and Ks out of the equation. Crawford's career stats from 2002-2010 sit at .331. The major league average is around .300 give or take +/- .005 in any given year. The two seasons where Crawford was slowed by his hamstring injuries his BABIP fell to the league average of .297 in 2008 and .299 in 2011. Now there are a lot of different ways that baseball experts and fans look at the BABIP stat. Some people look at Crawford's numbers and say he has been lucky, others say he just didn't hit the ball on the screws enough last year. Then I took a good look at his infield hits stats over the last 4 season over at BASEBALL REFERENCE
Infield Hits
| Season | AB | AVG | Hits |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 183 | .049 | 9 |
| 2009 | 260 | .131 | 34 |
| 2010 | 236 | .136 | 32 |
| 2011 | 203 | .074 | 15 |
Now I don't want to blame the hamstring solely for the drop. Last year I was one of the few people I know screaming my head off at Francona on TV for not hitting Crawford in the #2 spot in the lineup for several reasons. The infield hits being one of many reasons why. Think about it this way. If you have Jacoby Ellsbury on first base, the Short-stop has to be pulled over closer to 2nd base due to the threat to steal and the natural double-play shift being on. In fact due to Ellsbury blazing speed the SS of the other team would most likely be cheating even closer towards 2nd base thus opening up a huge hole between short and 3rd. For a hitter such as Crawford who has plus-plus speed and is normally pitched around the outside corner this opens up a bevy of chances at getting infield hits and even balls sneaking through the infield all together. Now think about the amount of FC or fielder's choices he hits into having slow running players such as Gonzalez, Ortiz and Youkilis clogging up the bases in front of him and you can start to understand why Crawford has voiced his displeasure hitting 7th in the lineup. Not only does this change his numbers dramatically when it comes to infield hits and BABIP , but it greatly changes the amount of chances he has at stealing bases.
Crawford's numbers in the 2nd spot in the lineup further back up his desires for hitting in that spot. In the 2 hole he has posted a .303 average in 2696 PA's and an OBP of .346. His numbers in a smaller sample size hitting 7th aren't all that bad from a hitting point of view at .299 AVG and .351 OBP in just 150 PA's but his Stolen Base numbers out of the 2 spot show him attempting to steal 30% of his opportunities whereas he only attempted to steal in 17% of his chances in the 7th spot.
Now I know that Pedroia is the prototypical 2nd hitter in a line-up and you may think that moving him is a crazy idea, but if you realize that Pedroia is the most interchangeable bat in the lineup you will see that he can easily move to the clean-up spot. In fact last year his numbers in the clean-up spot improved over his numbers hitting 2nd. His average rises from .303 to .347, his OBP stays the same and his SLUG % goes up to .584 from .468.
Pedroia has the best bat control on the team and is one of the hardest hitters in the majors to strike out. How many times do you think Gonzalez may get walked to load the bases if Ellsbury and Crawford are on 2nd and 3rd in an attempt to set up the double play? Pedroia's stats with the bases juiced are insane. He puts the ball in play 89% of the time, has hit .333, slugged .491 and driven in 52 runs in 60 PA's in his career.
The pressure that the opposing pitcher would be under with a lineup of Ellsbury, Crawford, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Ortiz & Youklis 1-6 would be endless.
Would any pitcher in MLB want the unenviable task of trying to hold Ellsbury and Crawford on 2nd and 1st with Gonzalez, Pedroia and Ortiz at the plate. Curve-balls are pretty much taken out of the equation for fear of those burners stealing bases on you and then you have to think about not grooving a fastball when smart hitters such as the three named above know you have to throw them heat.
Last year Francona didn't mix it up enough for Crawford to excel, but the offense was clicking so it is tough to blame him. Bobby Valentine won't commit to a line-up until a week before Opening Day, but I am hoping that having Bill James on the staff will help sway his decision in this direction. Until we can get an idea on where he hits it is tough to gauge his projections for next year, but if he gets 3/4ths of his PA's in the 2 spot, I can see a .290 AVG, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 110 Runs and 40SBs being easily attained.
Where to do you think Crawford should hit in the lineup?
Past Scouting Reports
JB Knox a life-long Red Sox fan who grew up in Boston and now resides in Portland, ME. He like to use his experiences as a college shortstop with his ever growing love for statistical analysis to provide in-depth scouting reports on your favorite Sox players and more. Owner of www.1313sports.com
