Andrew Bailey 2012 Scouting Report

The Andrew Bailey trade is now a few days old and I thought it would be good to delve into the statistical breakdown of the Red Sox new closer.

First and foremost, I really like this move by Ben Cherington. He entered into tough negotiations with a skilled GM in Billy Beane who was clearly asking for more than he got in exchange for his star closer. Early reports had the A's GM seeking Reddick, a young starter and one of the Sox top prospects in Will Middlebrooks, who will be the Sox starting 3rd Baseman by the 2014 season if all goes as planned. With the injury history of Andrew Bailey this seemed to be a bit much and the waiting game helped Cherington in this deal tremendously. Beane had several players on the market including Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, both of whom are former All-Star starting pitchers. If these two starters are still on the A's roster their chances of pulling a "MoneyBall" 2002 season are greatly increased and the need for Bailey in an A's uniform follows the same pattern. However the last thing a rebuilding team needs is relief pitching let alone a closer. After all what good is it to have a guy whom can yield you prospects pitch the 9th inning of games that you will most likely be losing 75% of the time? Once the deals for Cahill and Gonzalez were made, Bailey became significantly less valuable to the A's. What also helped matters was the fact that this was a very rich Closer's Market in Hot Stove baseball and pitchers such as Ryan Madson were still readily available if the Sox had to go down that road. In essence Bailey was traded for two very young and unproven prospects in Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. I wouldn't exactly say that the Red Sox robbed the A's in this deal yet, but if Bailey is able to pitch to his capabilities and Sweeney helps out the Sox in any way shape or form, then a steal is a steal is a steal.

And now on to the ins/outs of Andrew Bailey.

Andrew Bailey is slated to fill a serious void in the Red Sox bullpen and has saved 75 games over the past 3 seasons but he is leaving the cavernous confines of Oakland Coliseum to the hitter friendly ballpark in the Fenway District of Boston. So let's first look at his Home/Road breakdowns during his career.

There are two stats categories below that some of you may not be familiar with, so I've decided to give some definitions to them. All of the stats and definitions have been calculated by the immensely talented people over at FanGraphs. If you are as much of a stats fanatic as I am then I highly recommend stopping by their site. The forums are amazing and the Bill James breakdowns are better than anything you will hear come out of Buster Olney or Peter Gammons mouth's all season.

1) FIP-

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play, so a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level is by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home-runs.

Obviously, a walk is not as hurtful as a home-run and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these differences, and presents results on the same scale as ERA. It has been proven to be much more effective than ERA at predicting future performance, and has become a mainstay in saber-metric analysis.

2) xFIP- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated exactly the same as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home-run rate with the league-average rate (10.6% HR/FB) since pitcher home-run rates have been shown to be very unstable over time. A pitcher may allow a home-runs on 12% of their fly-balls one year, yet then turn around and only allow 7% the next year. Home-run rates can be very difficult to predict, so xFIP attempts to correct for that.

Along with FIP, xFIP is one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

Andrew Bailey	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	xFIP	LOB%
HOME	10.45	1.87	0.39	2.17	1.94	2.61	74.6%
AWAY	7.4	3.27	0.76	1.96	3.62	4.27	88.2%

Looking at the above table we can see that his ERA holds up pretty well on the road, but his numbers in regards to FIP and xFIP are almost doubled. The K/BB ratio is somewhat alarming as well. We all know that walks are very damaging in the 9th and I am certainly hoping that Bailey's Home breakdowns stays consistent with his career numbers even at Fenway. Pitchers are almost always better at home, especially when they get used to the backdrop behind the catcher as well as getting more acclimated with their own mound.

The real area of concern to look at would be his GB/FB% or ground balls to fly balls %. The MLB average for ground ball percentage is 44%. This is the number of balls put in play that result in a ground-ball as opposed to a fly-ball. While ground-balls most definitely are harder to defend and lead to a higher batting average against, a high fly-ball percentage at Fenway could spell doom for closers.

Bailey had a GB% of 37.1% which is right in line with former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon's 37.5%. Papelbon certainly has the edge when it comes to the K/9 innings stat as he averages 12.17 K/9 to Bailey's 8.86 K/9, but they have fairly similar rates when it comes to the amount of HR's they allow per Fly-Ball with 5.7% of Bailey's fly-balls leaving the yard and Papelbon holding steady at 4.8%. The MLB average for HR/FB is at 10.6%, so both of these pitchers are well-above that mark.

So, the peripherals on Papelbon are clearly in his favor, but let's not forget we are paying Andrew Bailey $3.5 million as opposed to the $11 million Paps is getting in Philadelphia.

Bailey does have an edge over Papelbon however. He strands a much larger percentage of runners than Paps does. Bailey has stranded over 81.7% of his inherited runners while Papelbon has stranded only 68.7% and 69.7% over his last two seasons. This for Papelbon is a red-flag due to the fact that he inherited far less runners than Bailey due to the fact that other than September having Bard in front of him gave him only 16 inherited runners on the season. For Paps next season he will have to hope that his 8th inning set-up is as on point as Bard was in that role the last 2 seasons.

Another area of concern for fans of "The Nation" are in the past injuries of Bailey. Bailey has suffered from elbow and forearm strain injuries over the last two seasons and has thrown for more than 50 innings in either of the last two years. The Red Sox will most certainly be monitoring this closely. Arm injuries are always a major red-flag when it comes to pitchers, but I would not expect the Sox to treat Bailey with the same carelessness that the A's did. Back in the 2008 and 2009 seasons Bailey was being groomed as a starter in the Oakland system. He had 110 IP and 15 starts in AA in 2008 and then was asked to throw a whopping 83.1 IP in his Rookie Of the Year season in 2009. The A's had to use in him in the 8th and 9th in several games and as a closer with the changes in approach that are needed 193 IP over two seasons is a ton of work. Paps on the other hand as never been asked to throw for more than 70 IP in any of the Sox seasons and came into our system as a closer in college and never really left that role. Now, I am not saying this was the cause of his arm woes, but...well yes I am directly blaming the A's lack of bullpen and handling of their staff for the injuries.

So what have these arm injuries done to Bailey's approach and pitch selection over the last 2 years? Let's take a look:

Season	FB%/MPH	CT%/MPH	CB%/MPH	CH%/MPH
2009	59.4%/94.1	26.1%/89.1	14.3%/77.9	0.2%/86.5
2010	69.2%/94.3	20.3%/90.8	10.2%/77.3	0.3%/85.5
2011	76.6%/93.4	16.3%/86.8	6.5%/77.5	0.6%/84.8

These stats tell me that the arm woes are not affecting his velocity at all, which is a great sign and tells me that his shoulder is in great shape and that he uses his lower body a lot during his delivery. There has been a minor drop of less than 1 MPH over the years which isn't a big deal at all.

What concerns me here is that he is relying on his 4-Seam Fastball a lot more and that is a direct correlation the elbow and forearm pain he has been suffering from. His secondary pitches are his Cutter and his Curveball. Both of these pitchers put serious strain on the inside of the elbow and down to the forearm due to the pressure required from the middle-finger on the outside seems of the baseball. A 4-Seam fastball generally is held with zero palm on the ball as if the ball is a Yo-Yo. This generally affects the the bottom of the elbow, whereas the Cutter and Curveballs have pressure on the inside part of the middle finger and strains the tendons in the inside of the elbow and the fore-arm due to the late snapping motion of the arm.

A constant reliance on his 4-seamer is a dangerous way to live for a guy that is only throwing in the low-mid 90s, so I am hoping that either he has become much more effective with his change-up, or confident enough to throw it when he is behind in the count or that the arm woes have decreased significantly. Judging by the increase in the difference in the MPH of his Fastball to Change-up it looks like he is getting more adept at adding more friction to the ball with similar arm action and I would expect that we will see this pitch selection rise up to the 2% area at minimum. At least that is what I would advise Bailey to work on the most this off-season and Spring Training.

All in all, I would say that I am still very excited being a Red Sox fan that we have acquired Andrew Bailey and my projections for him this season are as follows:

2012 Season Projections

Andrew Bailey	W	L	SVS	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	WAR
2012	5	3	33	53.2	2.62	7.86	2.43	1.6

If my projections hold somewhat close to form, this deal will be a big winner for Ben Cherington and the Red Sox regime.

JB Knox a life-long Red Sox fan who grew up in Boston and now resides in Portland, ME. He like to use his experiences as a college shortstop with his ever growing love for statistical analysis to provide in-depth scouting reports on your favorite Sox players and more. Owner of www.1313sports.com

Carl Crawford 2012 Scouting Report

Rewind one-year back to January of 2011 and the conversation surrounding Carl Crawford was much different. Crawford was a month removed from signing his 7 year/$142 million contract, Tito Francona was labeling him a "game changer" and CC was coming off the best season of his career. Baseball pundits were projecting 120 runs scored, 50 steals, .310 Avg., 15 HRs and 90 RBI's not to mention gold-glove caliber defense in left. Crawford as we know, ended up posting his worst statistical season across the board and left a bitter taste in the mouths of Red Sox Nation and Crawford alike.

This preseason expectations have tempered considerably on Crawford. The questions and concerns have risen and we are left wondering two things. 1)What the heck happened last year? 2)Can we realistically expect him to have a bounce back year and prove he is worth the $20 million per year we are paying him?

By answering the first question, I believe we find the answer to the second question. Do I think last year was a fluke or an outlier of sorts? NO. I do, however see two very clear reasons for last years downward trends and one extra area of concern that helped make things worse for him, which if changed will help him this season.

First let's look at the last 4 seasons of Crawford's numbers:

Season	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	BABIP	WAR
2008	482	8	69	57	25	6.2%	12.4%	.273	.297	2.8
2009	672	15	96	68	60	7.6%	14.7%	.305	.342	5.9
2010	663	19	110	90	47	6.9%	15.7%	.307	.342	7.6
2011	539	11	65	56	18	4.3%	19.3%	.255	.299	0.2

The reason I highlighted the 2008 and 2011 seasons is due to the fact that those are the two seasons in which Crawford has suffered hamstring injuries. Clearly looking at those two years you can see a rather significant drop-off in performance levels. Last season he had a Grade 1 Hamstring Strain to his left leg. Doesn't sound like a major injury when you first hear it, but when you look into things further you can see how it affects a player like Crawford.

First of all the left leg is Crawford's back leg as a left-handed hitter and thus it is the leg that begins and ends the transference of energy during his swing and greatly affects swing mechanics and balance at the plate, not to mention saps his swing of power. If you would like to be a bit interactive here feel free. Try going through a swinging motion from either side, or if you are a boxer you can do this by punching a heavy bag as if you were hitting someone in the body. The back leg holds the balance at the beginning of the swing and then on the follow through during the pivot or as we, baseball people like to call the "squishing the grape" pivot when your bat is making it's way through the zone. When you get to the finish of your swing and your back leg is at full extension reach back and feel your hamstring. You may notice the fast-twitching muscles fully flexed. Now imagine attempting to do this 100 times per day over the course of say 5 months or so with a Grade 1 strain. Not good to say the least and as a result of the discomfort you may have noticed Crawford off-balance on his front foot and lunging out at balls. You lose plate-coverage, the ability to hit through the ball and the ability to keep your weight back so that you can adjust to off-speed pitches.

In addition to changing the mechanics of his swing, the left hamstring injury obviously lowered his Stolen Base numbers. In fact the only two seasons Crawford has failed to steal at least 40 bags were 2008 and 2011. Last year he also attempted to steal on only 15% of the occasions he was on 1st or 2nd with no base-runners in front of him. So, to say his hamstring injury had little to do with the decline in the numbers of a player whose greatest physical asset are his legs would be greatly underestimating the impact of that injury.

Another area you may notice a change in the statistical layout above is his rise in K% and drop in BB%. Last year he was at an all-time low walking in only 4.3% of his Plate Appearances while striking out at an all-time high of 19.3%. Hey it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that when you are a speed guy you need to put the ball in play and get on base by any means possible. This of course caused Crawford's OBP (On-Base Percentage) to dip below .300 for the first time in his career. I will not however give the hamstring the sole blame for these numbers. There seems to be an alarming trend in Crawford's approach over the last few years. Since he has tried to incorporate more power in his game his K% has gone up every year since 2008, but it isn't due to a lack of seeing pitches. In fact last year he saw 3.89 pitches per plate appearance which ranked 4th on the Red Sox behind Pedroia, Youkilis and Ortiz and one spot ahead of Ellsbury. The prior two seasons which were the two best in Crawford's career he saw 3.74 and 3.75 respectfully. The problem with Crawford and his rise in K% is due to his issues swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Over the last two years his O-Swing% has gone from a career average of swinging at 31% of the pitches he sees outside the zone to 35.6% in 2010 and a career worst 37.9% last year. So if you couple his plate discipline with the lack of plate coverage hampered by his hamstring injury you can start to see why his K% have risen and his production last year dipped so much.

To make matters worse in regards to CC chasing more pitches outside the zone are that he has very weak numbers during his career when facing 2 strikes in counts of 0-2, 1-2 or even at 2-2. In 2103 plate appearances with those counts he has amassed just 428 hits for a paltry .206 AVG.

Another stat on the above table is BABIP or batting average on balls in play. This stat is calculated similarly to batting average but takes HR's and Ks out of the equation. Crawford's career stats from 2002-2010 sit at .331. The major league average is around .300 give or take +/- .005 in any given year. The two seasons where Crawford was slowed by his hamstring injuries his BABIP fell to the league average of .297 in 2008 and .299 in 2011. Now there are a lot of different ways that baseball experts and fans look at the BABIP stat. Some people look at Crawford's numbers and say he has been lucky, others say he just didn't hit the ball on the screws enough last year. Then I took a good look at his infield hits stats over the last 4 season over at BASEBALL REFERENCE

Infield Hits

Season	AB	AVG	Hits
2008	183	.049	9
2009	260	.131	34
2010	236	.136	32
2011	203	.074	15

Once again the two season where he had the hamstring injuries affected the amount of infield hits he tallied on the season. In fact if you add the average of his infield hits between 2009-2010 you would have 18 more hits. When adding those 18 hits into last years numbers his average rises up to .289. I would say that is a heck of a lot more respectable than the .255 he posted.

Now I don't want to blame the hamstring solely for the drop. Last year I was one of the few people I know screaming my head off at Francona on TV for not hitting Crawford in the #2 spot in the lineup for several reasons. The infield hits being one of many reasons why. Think about it this way. If you have Jacoby Ellsbury on first base, the Short-stop has to be pulled over closer to 2nd base due to the threat to steal and the natural double-play shift being on. In fact due to Ellsbury blazing speed the SS of the other team would most likely be cheating even closer towards 2nd base thus opening up a huge hole between short and 3rd. For a hitter such as Crawford who has plus-plus speed and is normally pitched around the outside corner this opens up a bevy of chances at getting infield hits and even balls sneaking through the infield all together. Now think about the amount of FC or fielder's choices he hits into having slow running players such as Gonzalez, Ortiz and Youkilis clogging up the bases in front of him and you can start to understand why Crawford has voiced his displeasure hitting 7th in the lineup. Not only does this change his numbers dramatically when it comes to infield hits and BABIP , but it greatly changes the amount of chances he has at stealing bases.

Crawford's numbers in the 2nd spot in the lineup further back up his desires for hitting in that spot. In the 2 hole he has posted a .303 average in 2696 PA's and an OBP of .346. His numbers in a smaller sample size hitting 7th aren't all that bad from a hitting point of view at .299 AVG and .351 OBP in just 150 PA's but his Stolen Base numbers out of the 2 spot show him attempting to steal 30% of his opportunities whereas he only attempted to steal in 17% of his chances in the 7th spot.

Now I know that Pedroia is the prototypical 2nd hitter in a line-up and you may think that moving him is a crazy idea, but if you realize that Pedroia is the most interchangeable bat in the lineup you will see that he can easily move to the clean-up spot. In fact last year his numbers in the clean-up spot improved over his numbers hitting 2nd. His average rises from .303 to .347, his OBP stays the same and his SLUG % goes up to .584 from .468.

Pedroia has the best bat control on the team and is one of the hardest hitters in the majors to strike out. How many times do you think Gonzalez may get walked to load the bases if Ellsbury and Crawford are on 2nd and 3rd in an attempt to set up the double play? Pedroia's stats with the bases juiced are insane. He puts the ball in play 89% of the time, has hit .333, slugged .491 and driven in 52 runs in 60 PA's in his career.

The pressure that the opposing pitcher would be under with a lineup of Ellsbury, Crawford, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Ortiz & Youklis 1-6 would be endless.

Would any pitcher in MLB want the unenviable task of trying to hold Ellsbury and Crawford on 2nd and 1st with Gonzalez, Pedroia and Ortiz at the plate. Curve-balls are pretty much taken out of the equation for fear of those burners stealing bases on you and then you have to think about not grooving a fastball when smart hitters such as the three named above know you have to throw them heat.

Last year Francona didn't mix it up enough for Crawford to excel, but the offense was clicking so it is tough to blame him. Bobby Valentine won't commit to a line-up until a week before Opening Day, but I am hoping that having Bill James on the staff will help sway his decision in this direction. Until we can get an idea on where he hits it is tough to gauge his projections for next year, but if he gets 3/4ths of his PA's in the 2 spot, I can see a .290 AVG, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 110 Runs and 40SBs being easily attained.

Where to do you think Crawford should hit in the lineup?

Past Scouting Reports

Andrew Bailey

JB Knox a life-long Red Sox fan who grew up in Boston and now resides in Portland, ME. He like to use his experiences as a college shortstop with his ever growing love for statistical analysis to provide in-depth scouting reports on your favorite Sox players and more. Owner of www.1313sports.com

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Play Ball!

Heading to Spring Training soon....

I will once again be heading to Arizona to take in some Spring training games in early March. The access to the players is incredible and sitting in the sun watching baseball at that time of year is priceless.

I will be blogging along the way.....

Daily Boxscores - November 23, 2011

I am going to be doing an almost daily recorded opinion piece about the Boston Red Sox and baseball in general.

Below is my first episode about Justin Verlander winning the American League MVP over Jacoby Ellsbury.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday!